Posted by: Anna Webb | March 1, 2010

El Nino Predicted to Continue At Least Three More Months


The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center announced the latest data on Pacific Ocean water temperatures and trends, predicting at least three more months of El Nino conditions.

In their prognostic discussion for long-lead  Hawaiian outlooks, they predict continuation of below normal levels of precipitation for the islands. The end of January 2010 found Hilo Airport measurements at 10% of normal rainfall received for the year. Based upon personal observations, I conclude that those levels remained the same through February until yesterday. A system passing north of the islands toward mainland U.S. brought a “tail  whip” of wind and rain to the islands yesterday.

According to the Department of Meteorology at the University of Hawaii synoptic discussion, this rain and moisture should continue through the week. This system will help the islands catch up on rainfall amounts but according to the overall outlook, we should fall back into dryer conditions once this system moves off to the East.

Mid-March the NOAA meteorologists will post their findings for March to inform us, once again, of their El Nino predictions. Meanwhile, Hawaii can anticipate lingering drought conditions while areas in the 48 states can expect more moisture. Going forward, experts will be announcing the effects of El Nino on hurricane and tornadic activity should it continue past the Spring season.

Stay tuned for further updates on this blog and remember, all comments are welcomed!

Aloha!

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Responses

  1. Here in the Texas Hill Country, we are at 5 inches above average following a nearly 3 year drought that now seems to have ended, or at least abetted.

    Critter ranchers are happy to get their herds back in shape and to be harvesting their own Hay and feed stocks instead of having to buy it from Oklahoma or selling off herd animals.

    Bill


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